China is on the cusp of a leadership change that may make it particularly sensitive to provocations, according to the latest report from the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy headed by Ian Bremmer.
New party leadership will be chosen at the Communist Party’s 19th National Congress. Bremmer refers to this as “one of the most complex events since the beginning of China’s reform era (which started in 1978)”. "Chinese president Xi Jinping — will be extremely sensitive to external challenges to his country’s interests at a time when all eyes are on his leadership. The Chinese president will be more likely than ever to respond forcefully to foreign policy challenges” Bremmer continued.
Trump scolded China in a series of tweets last month for capturing a US sea drone, which China later released back to the US.He has also threatened to put a 45% tariff on Chinese-made goods. More recently, Trump chose Robert Lighthizer, former deputy US trade representative under Ronald Reagan and skeptic of current Chinese trade practices, to be his chief trade negotiator. Judging from past event, Bremmer predicts that Trump could be one trigger to “rattle” Xi as he faces an upcoming change in the party leadership.
Xi may be trying to fill the new Standing Committee with allies to block the promotion of a potential successor for when his term is up in 2022, party insiders told the Wall Street Journal.
Who knows if Li Keqiang will stay on for a second five-year term after the 19th National Congress .
“China faces business defaults and bankruptcies, low industrial profits, winnowing returns on investment and the very real prospect of yet another slowdown in the real estate sector,”. “How well Beijing manages these problems in the months ahead will, to a great extent, determine China’s economic, social and political stability for years to come.” Stratfor analyst John Minnich writes.
Source: Yahoo News
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